Abstract
This study analyzes the decline in Brazilian orange juice exports between 2023 and 2025, aiming to identify the main factors responsible for the reduction in export volume and to assess its impacts on foreign trade. The research is characterized as descriptive and exploratory, with both qualitative and quantitative approaches, using secondary data from sources such as CitrusBR, CEPEA, the Ministry of Agriculture, and specialized publications. Key indicators analyzed include export volume, revenue, and main destination markets. The results reveal a significant decrease in export volume, mainly associated with reduced national production due to adverse climatic conditions and the spread of phytosanitary diseases such as greening. In contrast, export revenues increased in 2024 due to rising international prices, followed by a decline in 2025, indicating a market adjustment process. The study also highlights a high concentration of exports in a few markets, particularly the European Union and the United States, along with a reduction in Asian markets such as China and Japan. It is concluded that the decline in exports results from the combined effects of supply constraints, rising international prices, and decreasing global demand. This scenario leads to increased volatility in export revenues, greater dependence on traditional markets, and challenges to the sector’s competitiveness. Therefore, strategies focused on market diversification, productivity improvement, and risk mitigation are essential for the sustainability of the Brazilian citrus sector.
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